While the trans military ban is not yet official or implemented, the likely outcome is that existing trans military members will be able to serve, but no new service members will be able to enlist.
According to the Wall Street Journal , a new memo is being prepared for the Pentagon that will provide guidance on trans military service members. Those on active duty will still be able to serve, and they will still be eligible to be vetted for deployability, meaning that if they are eligible they can go serve on ships or overseas. However, the military will stop renewing enlistment contracts for trans service members, it will stop expecting applications from them, and it will stop funding transitional surgeries.
While this is disturbing news for trans military equality, nothing is set in stone as of yet.
“We have received no direction that would indicate any harm to anybody right now,” Secretary Mattis explained at a press conference last week. “I’m going to wait, again, until I get the direction from the White House. And then we will study it and come up with what the policy should be.”
Those outraged by the ban have sued due to discrimination, but it is still not clear whether or not their actions will have an impact and be able to effectively stop this ban. It has also been confirmed that Mike Pence has been one of the driving forces behind the ban, and has been working actively with anti-LGBTQ activists to keep trans people out of the military.