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2012 election results roundup

2012 election results roundup

Tuesday’s election was unquestionably a good night for Democrats. President Obama won re-election early in the evening – dispelling rumors that his 2008 turnout advantage would collapse – while the most diverse electorate in U.S. history – down to 72 percent white – affirmed the trajectory of young voters and people of color joining the electorate at a steady pace, which will continue to move in their party’s favor for the foreseeable future. Democrats also picked up Senate seats in a year they had been expected to lose their majority.

There are silver linings for Republicans: The party took control of all three branches of state government in North Carolina and easily held the U.S. House thanks to a hefty slate of incumbents and redistricted maps that favored them. In Colorado, where several U.S. congressional races were competitive, it appears Republicans didn’t lose any incumbents.

But there were also big moments in down-ballot contests, not least being marriage equality. Here’s a recap of the 2012 election results we know so far:


President Obama is re-elected


What it means for equality: President Obama is the first sitting president to publicly support same-sex marriage. Most importantly, marriage equality will probably wind up in the U.S. Supreme Court, where four current justices are reliably liberal, four are conservative, and one “swing vote,”  Justice Anthony Kennedy, breaks ties. Four of the Court’s justices are in their 70s and Barack Obama will probably make at least one and maybe 2 more appointments – which will either maintain the ideological balance, or shift it. 

There’s a symbolic victory as well: In 2004, a ballot initiative to ban same-sex marriage in Ohio boosted Evangelical turnout and may be what cost John Kerry the presidency. Whether or not the President Obama’s endorsement of marriage equality cost him a couple percentage points in Ohio, it’s notable that the first fully pro-equality president won there. 

After the 2008 election launched Barack Obama to office in a historic wave – in which even the traditionally-Republican states of Indiana and North Carolina tossed their electoral votes to Democrats – it wasn’t clear to everyone whether it the election was more about Obama himself, or a repudiation of deeply-unpopular President Bush and his Republican Party. After all, Obama rode in with a surge of Democratic House members and Senators who won even in states like Alaska; the year clearly favored Democrats on the whole.

In 2008, Obama’s 7.2 percent win in the popular vote translated to a massive electoral college win of 365-173. In 2012, in contrast, President Bush was hidden away from the public eye. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney campaigned as a moderate in the last few weeks of the election, and despite Democrats’ outcry that general-election Romney embodied the mother of all flip-flops from the “severely conservative” Romney who ran in the Republican primary, many late-deciding voters were fine with the change – many even told reporters they were glad for it – assuming Romney did what he had to do to get the GOP nomination, and would similarly do what he has to do as President. With the election this time clearly a choice between two candidates with two worldviews – in trying economic times that challenged the typical incumbent advantage – how did the President hold up?

It’s also of note that the 2010 Census left the electoral college climb little steeper for the president: Solid-blue states like New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania lost electoral votes, and red states like Texas and Arizona gained influence. In 2000, Al Gore could have tied the electoral college with the states he carried plus any other state, and would have won outright if he’d carried any competitive one; even without Florida, tiny New Hampshire would have done it. If Obama had carried Al Gore’s states plus New Hampshire in 2012, this time it wouldn’t have been enough.

But Obama’s 2008 states held up well – with results pending in Florida (where Obama is likely to win) – he lost only Indiana and North Carolina from his 2008 tally. All the contested states except North Carolina went in the President’s favor. All focus had been on Ohio, but Obama could have won handily even without Ohio.

Swing State Scoreboard:
Obama wins: Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada
Romney wins: North Carolina
Pending: Florida (likely Obama)


Republicans hold the U.S. House

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner with Rep. Eric Cantor

What it means for equality: President Obama signed the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, but the Defense of Marriage Act remains on the books and the Employee Non-Discrimination Act remains on the President’s agenda. The sustained Republican House majority means that getting legislation through the House will be difficult, and won’t pass without substantial Republican crossovers. 

2008 was a wave election – a clear referendum on Republicans under President Bush. Democrats swept the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency. Additionally, presidential election years almost always get higher turnout from members of the Democratic coalition – young and working-class voters – many of whom don’t vote in midterms since they’re less inspired by the lower-prominence House, Senate and local elections, At the same time, Get-Out-The-Vote efforts are less intense in midterms without the coordinated effort of a well-funded presidential campaign.

During the 2010 midterm elections, polls showed just that – a lot of voters that usually vote Democrat didn’t turn out. Some say the limping economy left deep frustration with government that depressed turnout, and others say Democratic overreach is what drove the Tea Party and Conservative base to turn out. But the electorate would have been smaller and more Republican in 2010 than in 2008 regardless of the political environment.

At the same time, traditional “swing voters” are deeply uncomfortable with single-party rule in government no matter which party it is in charge – they’d rather have divided power, ensuring that any new legislation has both Democratic and Republican support. So with a Democrat in the White House in 2010, swing voters looked more favorably on Republicans to restore a balance of power, which combined with lower Democratic turnout – a huge Republican advantage. Republicans surged and took over dozens of state legislatures and governor’s offices.

2010 also happened to be a Census year, meaning that Republicans had more control in 2011 when House district lines were re-drawn by state legislatures across the country to reflect population changes. Of course Republicans drew those lines in their own favor, hoping to shore up support for their newly-elected incumbents. That’s why the House was a non-issue in 2012; no matter who got more votes in House races nationwide, Republicans were going to stay in control.

Polls showed a split between support for Democrats and Republicans for downticket races, which affirmed two things: One, this was a true election based on present circumstances, no referendum on past governments. Two, the electorate as a whole already felt the government was balanced enough and voted the way they wanted to vote – there would be no “wave” or tendency to “send a message” to any one side.

While the national House vote is still being tallied – and there’s a good chance Democrats will have gotten more popular votes overall – Republican dominance in the House of Representatives will continue. This is no surprise.


Democrats expand a narrow U.S. Senate majority

Democratic Senator-Elect Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts

What it means for equality:  The House remains a difficult place for LGBT-friendly legislation, but not the Senate. Getting a bill through the Senate puts more pressure on U.S. House members, many of whom will have support for equality measures among their constituents. At the very least, a 6-year Senate term lasts longer than a 2-year term in the House, so it’s now more likely Democrats will continue to control the Senate if House leadership turns over in a future election. 

2008 was actually the second wave election in a row – 2006 had been good for Democrats, when their candidates picked up most of the competitive races.

A third of the Senate is up for re-election every two years – ominous for Democrats in 2012. At the end of the 6-year terms of those elected in 2006, Republican incumbents were on solid footing (they’d won even in a very bad year for Republicans) while the Democrats were often in GOP-leaning states and vulnerable. As long as it was evident that 2012 was not going to be another wave for Democrats, it was expected that Democrats would lose their majority in the Senate.

That didn’t materialize. That’s partly due to Tea Party efforts to replace mainstream Republican incumbents with more conservative candidates during Republican primaries – nominees such as Todd Aiken and Richard Murdock who got themselves in hot water with public comments about women impregnated by rape. Many others had lost elections for being too far Right in 2010 as well.

U.S. Senate Scorecard (competitive races):
Arizona: Republican Jeff Flake defeats Democrat Richard Carmona (Republican hold)
Connecticut: Democrat Chris Murphy defeats Republican Linda McMahon (Democratic hold)
Florida: Democrat Bill Nelson defeats Republican Connie Mack (Democratic hold)
Indiana: Democrat Joe Donnelly defeats Republican Richard Murdock (Democratic pickup)
Maine: Independent Angus King defeats Republican Charlie Summers (Democratic pickup)
Massachusetts: Democrat Elizabeth Warren defeats Republican Scott Brown (Democratic pickup)
Missouri: Democrat Claire McCaskill defeats Republican Todd Aiken (Democratic hold)
Nebraska: Republican Deb Fischer defeats Democrat Bob Kerrey (Republican pickup)
North Dakota: Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican Rick Berg are headed for a recount (Would be a Democratic hold)
Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats Republican Josh Mandel (Democratic hold)
Virginia: Democrat Jim Webb defeats Republican George Allen (Democratic hold)
Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin defeats Republican Tommy Thompson (Democratic hold)

Tally: 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans becomes 55 Democrats to 45 Republicans


Democrats take the Colorado State House, hold State Senate

Rep. Mark Ferrandino speaking at a rally for civil unions in May 2012. Ferrandino is likely to become Colorado’s Speaker of the House.

What it means for equality: In Colorado, a bill for civil unions is nearly guaranteed to pass in 2013, and Rep. Mark Ferrandino will become Colorado’s first openly-gay Speaker of the House. 

A vulnerable minority’s rights are better off fought for with bipartisan support – otherwise the onslaught of vitriolic political rhetoric and campaign advertising, normally only targeted at politicians who choose to run for office, is turned instead to ordinary people who didn’t volunteer for that, and many of whom are in no place to suffer through it. Without a doubt, political rhetoric regarding same-sex marriage and civil union contributes to bullying and harassment LGBT youth or people in the workplace experience, and takes a lasting emotional toll.

That’s why, in hindsight, Colorado’s fierce battles over relationship recognition and civil unions, littered with stinging defeats, will probably someday be seen as a pretty good strategy for equality. In 2008, Democrats had control of Colorado’s state House, state Senate and Governor’s office, but never introduced a bill for civil unions. Imagine what may have happened if they’d passed one: Surely a renewed efforts to ban not only same-sex marriage but all relationship recognition through a ballot initiative, surely a lot of campaign mailers and ads attacking Democrats for supporting LGBT rights. Surely rhetoric framing equality as a liberal Democrat agenda, intimidating Republican politicians who secretly support civil unions and maybe even swaying ordinary Republican and unaffiliated voters across the state to oppose LGBT rights. In 2008, only one state had ever defeated an anti-gay referendum by popular vote, and it only lasted two years before one did pass.

In 2010, Colorado’s legislature was divided – a Republican House and a Democratic Senate – and that’s when a bill for civil unions was introduced by Sen. Pat Steadman, an openly-gay Democrat from Denver. Republicans who silently favored civil unions knew it couldn’t pass without them; they couldn’t make the political calculation of voting “no” as they silently cheer it on. Similarly, Democrats knew that if civil unions did pass, it be with bipartisan support, giving them some breathing room. The Democratic caucus became unanimous in favor of civil unions. A few Republicans announced themselves as crossover votes.

We all know what happened. Despite some Republican support, party leadership had the ability to kill the bill through procedural mechanisms: By sending it to a committee where reliable Republicans would block it, or, as happened quite dramatically in 2012, hold the bill to die calendar without receiving the vote that would have passed it. It turns out, to pass civil unions in Colorado, the majority leaders in the House and Senate need to be on your side.

Advocates of civil unions decided that the only way to pass civil unions would be to take back the House in 2012. Throwing support behind Democrats in key competitive races, they canvassed, called and campaigned to tip the balance, and last night they won – Democrats now have control of the body, making civil unions a sure thing. Hopefully the handful of Republicans who support civil unions will remain in support and it can still pass as a bipartisan bill.


Colorado will have eight out LGBT state legislators

What it means for equality: Colorado’s General Assembly of 100 seats – 35 state senators and 65 state representatives – will be it’s most representative yet, at 8 percent lesbian or gay.

In 2012, Colorado had four out state legislators – two in the House, and two in the Senate. They are Sen. Lucia Guzman, Sen. Pat Steadman, Rep. Mark Ferrandino and Rep. Sue Schafer. That was the state record then, and they’re all still there. Their numbers will be doubled next year when the newly-elected assembly is sworn in.

All but Guzman were up for re-election this year, and all of the openly lesbian or gay incumbents won – Steadman defeating a gay Republican challenger, Michael Carr, in his Denver district. The incumbents are joined by four new legislators: Representative-elect Dominick Moreno, Representative-Elect Joann Ginal, Representative-Elect Paul Rosenthal and Senator-Elect Jessie Ulibarri. At 8 percent LGBT, Colorado’s legislature will be the third most representative of its state’s LGBT population in the country.


The first openly-gay U.S. Senator elected in Wisconsin

Democratic Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin

What it means for equality: Senator-elect Tammy Baldwin won in a heavily blue-collar state and continues the national trend toward increasing representation of LGBT people in government. 

Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin seemed to be in an uphill battle – running for Wisconsin’s open Senate seat, she was the first lesbian major party nominee for U.S. Senate in a state where voters had banned same-sex marriage in 2006 by a 60-40 majority. She was running against popular former governor, Republican Tommy Thompson. Wisconsin has a slight Democratic lean, but that’s powered more by blue-collar union voters than social liberals.

Furthermore, Mitt Romney’s choice of the charismatic conservative Paul Ryan as his VP pick was sure to boost conservative turnout in Wisconsin, where Ryan is from.

Despite all that, Baldwin scored a comfortable win. Chalk it up to change.


Voters pass marriage equality in Washington State, Maryland and Maine

What it means for equality:  For the first time in U.S. history, an election has proven that marriage equality can win a statewide vote. 

Until 2012, advocates of marriage equality had won a statewide vote on the issue once. That happened in Arizona in 2006, when voters rejected a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, but in 2008 Arizonans turned around and passed a ban. Even in shiny-blue California in the Democratic wave election of 2008, voters famously passed Proposition 8, banning same-sex marriages that were already legal. Voters also nixed equality in 2009 in Maine, also a liberal-leaning state.

Nationwide, marriage equality had lost statewide ballots a whopping 32 times, to one fleeting Arizona victory that was later overturned. That is, until now.

In Maryland and Washington State, laws enacted by the legislature for same-sex marriage in 2012 were challenged by conservative grassroots activists, who forced them onto statewide ballots for voters to reject or approve. In Maine, marriage equality activists got equality on the ballot for 2012, hoping to overturn their stinging setback in 2009.

In all three states, the initiatives won – meaning that Washington, Maryland and Maine are now tied as the first three U.S. states to approve marriage equality by popular vote.

Voters reject a ban on same-sex marriage in Minnesota

There has been no same-sex marriage in Minnesota, but unlike many other states the ban isn’t elevated to the level of the state’s Constitution. That means a legislature could enact it, leaving social conservatives uncomfortable – so they put a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the ballot this year. Last night, it failed, making Minnesota the fifth state where marriage equality has won by a popular vote.


Voters legalize marijuana for recreational use in Colorado and Washington State

What it means for equality: There’s probably little direct relationship between marijuana and civil rights for LGBT people. But the success of measures legalizing marijuana use represent changing attitudes on values issues and growing influence of young voters in the electorate, who are also more LGBT-friendly.  

Several states have legalized medicinal marijuana use – Colorado was in fact one of the first to do so – but until yesterday, no state had ever allowed it to the general public. Politicians are reluctant to touch the issue – for obvious reasons – but voters too had rejected measures to legalize marijuana, notably in Alaska and California. This year there were three initiatives to do so, in Oregon, Washington and Colorado. Oregon’s initiative failed. So Washington and Colorado are now tied as the first states to pass referendums to tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol.

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